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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New Orleans Saints 4th & 4 at the 72

New Orleans Saints 27 – Seattle Seahawks 14

What Actually Happened

(11:04) 6-T.Morstead punts 54 yards to SEA 18, Center-49-Z.Wood. 16-T.Lockett to SEA 19 for 1 yard (48-J.Gray).

The Three Options

GO -1.50 EP
Model's Pick
  • 50% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 68, worth +1.23 EP
  • 50% chance to fail: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 72, worth -4.22 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (89 yards).

PUNT -1.62 EP
What Happened
  • Seattle Seahawks would take over around their own 30, worth -1.62 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model