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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Seattle Seahawks 4th & 4 at the 39

Seattle Seahawks 0 – New Orleans Saints 7

What Actually Happened

(8:52) 4-M.Dickson punts 29 yards to NO 10, Center-69-T.Ott, fair catch by 11-D.Harris.

The Three Options

GO +1.02 EP
Model's Pick
  • 48% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 35, worth +3.94 EP
  • 52% chance to fail: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 39, worth -1.67 EP
KICK +0.14 EP
  • 54% chance to make a 56-yard field goal: 3 points, then New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.41 EP
  • 46% chance to miss: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 48, worth -2.48 EP
PUNT +0.20 EP
What Happened
  • New Orleans Saints would take over around their own 11, worth +0.20 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.82 EP