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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 New Orleans Saints 4th & 2 at the 82

New Orleans Saints 7 – Seattle Seahawks 0

What Actually Happened

(5:59) 6-T.Morstead punts 46 yards to SEA 36, Center-49-Z.Wood, fair catch by 16-T.Lockett.

The Three Options

GO -1.97 EP
Model's Pick
  • 63% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 80, worth -0.18 EP
  • 37% chance to fail: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 82, worth -4.98 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (99 yards).

PUNT -2.40 EP
What Happened
  • Seattle Seahawks would take over around their own 40, worth -2.40 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.43 EP