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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 4th & 19 at the 29

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 12 – New York Giants 10

What Actually Happened

(7:40) 9-M.Gay 47 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-97-Z.Triner, Holder-8-B.Pinion.

The Three Options

GO +0.30 EP
  • 22% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 10, worth +5.30 EP
  • 78% chance to fail: New York Giants takes over around their own 29, worth -1.10 EP
KICK +1.14 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 76% chance to make a 46-yard field goal: 3 points, then New York Giants takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.03 EP
  • 24% chance to miss: New York Giants takes over around their own 39, worth -1.69 EP
PUNT -0.05 EP
  • New York Giants would take over around their own 11, worth -0.05 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model