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New York Giants

HC Pat Shurmur
@
TB Home

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

HC Bruce Arians
Sunday 2019-09-22 · 16:05 Raymond James Stadium, Tampa US ☀️ Clear Spread 5.0 O/U 48.0

Win Probability

NYG
43.8%
TB
56.2%
☀️ Clear

Confidence: <strong>slight edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • Daniel Jones (NYG): +0.164 EPA/dropback in prior starts (NYG starting Daniel Jones in place of Eli Manning)
  • TB offense: -0.046 EPA/play over its last 8 games (22nd in the league)
  • NYG offense: +0.025 EPA/play over its last 8 games (12th in the league)
  • TB defense: -0.053 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (9th in the league)
  • NYG defense: +0.087 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (29th in the league)
  • TB on 3 more days rest than NYG

Predicted Final Score

NYG 22
–
TB 23
Projected margin: TB by 1 Projected total: 45

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 3

NYG

Cody Latimer WR Out Concussion
Bennie Fowler WR Questionable Hamstring

TB

Devante Bond LB Out Hamstring
Jamel Dean CB Out Ankle
Blaine Gabbert QB Out left Shoulder
Devin White LB Out Knee

Pulled fresh for 2019 week 3 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

NYG 32
–
TB 31

Prediction missed by 2 pts on margin, 18 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 09:54 TD TB (9:54) (Shotgun) 3-J.Winston pass deep right to 13-M.Evans for 21 yards, TOUCHDOWN [21-J.Peppers]. NYG 0 – TB 6
  • Q1 04:11 FG NYG (4:11) 2-A.Rosas 36 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-51-Z.DeOssie, Holder-9-R.Dixon. NYG 3 – TB 6
  • Q1 00:23 TD TB (:23) 3-J.Winston pass short left to 13-M.Evans for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NYG 3 – TB 12
  • Q2 10:06 TD NYG (10:06) (Shotgun) 8-D.Jones right end for 7 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NYG 9 – TB 12
  • Q2 07:40 FG TB (7:40) 9-M.Gay 47 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-97-Z.Triner, Holder-8-B.Pinion. NYG 10 – TB 15
  • Q2 04:08 FG TB (4:08) 9-M.Gay 27 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-97-Z.Triner, Holder-8-B.Pinion. NYG 10 – TB 18
  • Q2 01:31 TD TB (1:31) 3-J.Winston pass deep middle to 13-M.Evans for 20 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NYG 10 – TB 24
  • Q2 00:04 FG TB (:04) 9-M.Gay 52 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-97-Z.Triner, Holder-8-B.Pinion. NYG 10 – TB 28
  • Q3 15:00 TD NYG (15:00) (Shotgun) 8-D.Jones pass short left to 88-E.Engram for 75 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NYG 16 – TB 28
  • Q3 08:21 TD NYG (8:21) (Shotgun) 8-D.Jones pass short right to 87-S.Shepard for 7 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Penalty on TB-28-V.Hargreaves, Illegal Use of Hands, declined. NYG 24 – TB 28
  • Q4 06:04 FG TB (6:04) 9-M.Gay 23 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-97-Z.Triner, Holder-8-B.Pinion. NYG 25 – TB 31
  • Q4 01:21 TD NYG (1:21) (Shotgun) 8-D.Jones scrambles up the middle for 7 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NYG 31 – TB 31

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 TB 4th & 1 at the 41
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 69% p(FG) 46%

    (11:54) 25-P.Barber left guard to NYG 38 for 3 yards (59-L.Carter).

  • Q1 NYG 4th & 8 at the 18
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 32% p(FG) 92%

    (4:11) 2-A.Rosas 36 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-51-Z.DeOssie, Holder-9-R.Dixon.

  • Q2 TB 4th & 19 at the 29
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 22% p(FG) 76%

    (7:40) 9-M.Gay 47 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-97-Z.Triner, Holder-8-B.Pinion.

  • Q2 NYG 4th & 15 at the 81
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 30%

    (6:12) 9-R.Dixon punts 50 yards to TB 31, Center-51-Z.DeOssie. 85-B.Wilson to TB 29 for -2 yards (30-A.Hamilton).

  • Q2 TB 4th & 7 at the 9
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 33% p(FG) 97%

    (4:08) 9-M.Gay 27 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-97-Z.Triner, Holder-8-B.Pinion.

  • Q2 NYG 4th & 1 at the 66
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.31 EP
    p(convert) 71%

    (:46) 9-R.Dixon punts 44 yards to TB 22, Center-51-Z.DeOssie. 85-B.Wilson pushed ob at TB 30 for 8 yards (83-E.Tomlinson). PENALTY on TB-17-J.Watson, Illegal Block Above the Waist, 10 yards, enforced at TB 30.

  • Q2 TB 4th & 4 at the 34
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 45% p(FG) 65%

    (:04) 9-M.Gay 52 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-97-Z.Triner, Holder-8-B.Pinion.

  • Q3 TB 4th & 3 at the 49
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.54 EP
    p(convert) 52% p(FG) 26%

    (12:19) 8-B.Pinion punts 49 yards to end zone, Center-97-Z.Triner, Touchback.

  • Q3 TB 4th & 10 at the 75
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 36%

    (6:47) 8-B.Pinion punts 49 yards to NYG 26, Center-97-Z.Triner. 80-T.Jones MUFFS catch, and recovers at NYG 26. 80-T.Jones to NYG 39 for 13 yards (44-D.Ogunbowale).

  • Q3 NYG 4th & 16 at the 67
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 28%

    (5:47) 9-R.Dixon punts 52 yards to TB 15, Center-51-Z.DeOssie. 85-B.Wilson to TB 16 for 1 yard (17-C.Core; 58-T.Davis).

  • Q3 TB 4th & 8 at the 56
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 37%

    (1:13) 8-B.Pinion punts 37 yards to NYG 19, Center-97-Z.Triner, fair catch by 80-T.Jones.

  • Q4 TB 4th & 2 at the 5
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.21 EP
    p(convert) 53% p(FG) 98%

    (6:04) 9-M.Gay 23 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-97-Z.Triner, Holder-8-B.Pinion.

  • Q4 NYG 4th & 5 at the 70 late-game
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 46%

    (4:33) 9-R.Dixon punts 49 yards to TB 21, Center-51-Z.DeOssie. 85-B.Wilson to TB 22 for 1 yard (17-C.Core).

  • Q4 TB 4th & 1 at the 69 late-game
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.33 EP
    p(convert) 72%

    (3:24) 8-B.Pinion punts 44 yards to NYG 25, Center-97-Z.Triner, fair catch by 80-T.Jones.

  • Q4 NYG 4th & 5 at the 7 late-game
    Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.46 EP
    p(convert) 38% p(FG) 97%

    (1:21) (Shotgun) 8-D.Jones scrambles up the middle for 7 yards, TOUCHDOWN.