Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New York Giants 4th & 15 at the 81

New York Giants 10 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers 15

(6:12) 9-R.Dixon punts 50 yards to TB 31, Center-51-Z.DeOssie. 85-B.Wilson to TB 29 for -2 yards (30-A.Hamilton).

The Three Options

GO -2.99 EP

30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 66, worth +1.22 EP
70% chance to fail: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 81, worth -4.79 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (98 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model