4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 4th & 7 at the 9

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 15 – New York Giants 10

What Actually Happened

(4:08) 9-M.Gay 27 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-97-Z.Triner, Holder-8-B.Pinion.

The Three Options

GO +2.15 EP
  • 33% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 2, worth +6.24 EP
  • 67% chance to fail: New York Giants takes over around their own 9, worth +0.12 EP
KICK +2.27 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 97% chance to make a 26-yard field goal: 3 points, then New York Giants takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.36 EP
  • 3% chance to miss: New York Giants takes over around their own 21, worth -0.38 EP
PUNT +0.06 EP
  • New York Giants would take over around their own 11, worth +0.06 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model