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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New York Giants 4th & 1 at the 66

New York Giants 10 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers 25

What Actually Happened

(:46) 9-R.Dixon punts 44 yards to TB 22, Center-51-Z.DeOssie. 85-B.Wilson pushed ob at TB 30 for 8 yards (83-E.Tomlinson). PENALTY on TB-17-J.Watson, Illegal Block Above the Waist, 10 yards, enforced at TB 30.

The Three Options

GO -0.27 EP
Model's Pick
  • 71% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +0.97 EP
  • 29% chance to fail: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 66, worth -3.32 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (83 yards).

PUNT -0.58 EP
What Happened
  • Tampa Bay Buccaneers would take over around their own 24, worth -0.58 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.31 EP