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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 New York Giants 4th & 16 at the 67

New York Giants 25 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers 28

What Actually Happened

(5:47) 9-R.Dixon punts 52 yards to TB 15, Center-51-Z.DeOssie. 85-B.Wilson to TB 16 for 1 yard (17-C.Core; 58-T.Davis).

The Three Options

GO -1.96 EP
  • 28% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 51, worth +2.63 EP
  • 72% chance to fail: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 67, worth -3.70 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (84 yards).

PUNT -0.92 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Tampa Bay Buccaneers would take over around their own 25, worth -0.92 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model