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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 4th & 8 at the 56

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 28 – New York Giants 25

What Actually Happened

(1:13) 8-B.Pinion punts 37 yards to NYG 19, Center-97-Z.Triner, fair catch by 80-T.Jones.

The Three Options

GO -1.41 EP
  • 37% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 48, worth +2.65 EP
  • 63% chance to fail: New York Giants takes over around their own 56, worth -3.77 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (73 yards).

PUNT -1.36 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • New York Giants would take over around their own 17, worth -1.36 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model