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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New York Giants 4th & 5 at the 70

New York Giants 25 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers 31

What Actually Happened

(4:33) 9-R.Dixon punts 49 yards to TB 21, Center-51-Z.DeOssie. 85-B.Wilson to TB 22 for 1 yard (17-C.Core).

The Three Options

GO -1.28 EP
  • 46% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.33 EP
  • 54% chance to fail: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 70, worth -3.50 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (87 yards).

PUNT -0.84 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Tampa Bay Buccaneers would take over around their own 28, worth -0.84 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model