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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 4th & 1 at the 69

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 31 – New York Giants 25

What Actually Happened

(3:24) 8-B.Pinion punts 44 yards to NYG 25, Center-97-Z.Triner, fair catch by 80-T.Jones.

The Three Options

GO -0.57 EP
Model's Pick
  • 72% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 68, worth +0.60 EP
  • 28% chance to fail: New York Giants takes over around their own 69, worth -3.54 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (86 yards).

PUNT -1.90 EP
What Happened
  • New York Giants would take over around their own 27, worth -1.90 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.33 EP