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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New York Giants 4th & 5 at the 7

New York Giants 25 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers 31

What Actually Happened

(1:21) (Shotgun) 8-D.Jones scrambles up the middle for 7 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

The Three Options

GO +2.11 EP
What Happened
  • 38% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 2, worth +5.71 EP
  • 62% chance to fail: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 7, worth -0.08 EP
KICK +2.57 EP
Model's Pick
  • 97% chance to make a 24-yard field goal: 3 points, then Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.65 EP
  • 3% chance to miss: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 21, worth -0.26 EP
PUNT -0.11 EP
  • Tampa Bay Buccaneers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.11 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.46 EP