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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New England Patriots 4th & 1 at the 41

New England Patriots 20 – New York Jets 0

What Actually Happened

(:40) 7-J.Bailey punts 31 yards to NYJ 10, Center-49-J.Cardona, fair catch by 10-B.Berrios.

The Three Options

GO +1.52 EP
Model's Pick
  • 71% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 40, worth +2.72 EP
  • 29% chance to fail: New York Jets takes over around their own 41, worth -1.39 EP
KICK +0.11 EP
  • 47% chance to make a 58-yard field goal: 3 points, then New York Jets takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.30 EP
  • 53% chance to miss: New York Jets takes over around their own 49, worth -1.81 EP
PUNT -0.09 EP
What Happened
  • New York Jets would take over around their own 12, worth -0.09 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.61 EP