4th & Data
EN ES
← Home
NYJ Away

New York Jets

HC Adam Gase
@
NE Home

New England Patriots

HC Bill Belichick
Sunday 2019-09-22 · 13:00 Gillette Stadium, Foxborough US ☀️ Clear Spread 20.5 O/U 43.0

Win Probability

NYJ
14.4%
NE
85.6%
☀️ Clear

Confidence: <strong>strong edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • QB edge to NE: Tom Brady (NE) +0.227 vs Luke Falk (NYJ) -0.184 EPA/dropback (NYJ starting Luke Falk in place of Trevor Siemian)
  • NYJ offense: -0.124 EPA/play over its last 8 games (28th in the league)
  • NE defense: -0.192 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (1st in the league)
  • NE offense: +0.095 EPA/play over its last 8 games (4th in the league)
  • NYJ defense: +0.087 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (28th in the league)

Predicted Final Score

NYJ 15
–
NE 29
Projected margin: NE by 14 Projected total: 44

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 3

NYJ

Sam Darnold QB Out Illness
Jordan Jenkins LB Out Calf
C.J. Mosley LB Doubtful Groin
Demaryius Thomas WR Doubtful Hamstring
Quinnen Williams DT Doubtful Ankle
Kelechi Osemele G Questionable Knee
Kelvin Beachum T Questionable Ankle
Josh Bellamy WR Questionable Shoulder
Trenton Cannon RB Questionable Ankle
Steve McLendon DT Questionable Hip
Rontez Miles S Questionable Hip
Brian Poole CB Questionable Groin
Brian Winters G Questionable Shoulder

NE

James Develin RB Out Neck
Nate Ebner S Questionable Groin
Shilique Calhoun LB Questionable Not Injury Related
Matt LaCosse TE Questionable Ankle
Marcus Cannon T Questionable Shoulder
Ryan Izzo TE Questionable Calf

Pulled fresh for 2019 week 3 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

NYJ 14
–
NE 30

Prediction missed by 2 pts on margin, 0 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 08:00 TD NE (8:00) (Shotgun) 26-S.Michel right tackle for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NYJ 0 – NE 6
  • Q1 04:31 TD NE (4:31) 12-T.Brady pass short right to 13-P.Dorsett for 25 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NE 12-Brady 523rd career TD pass, passes Brees for 2nd-most all-time (P. Manning 539). NYJ 0 – NE 12
  • Q2 13:40 TD NE (13:40) (Shotgun) 12-T.Brady pass short left to 11-J.Edelman for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN [98-K.Phillips]. NYJ 0 – NE 19
  • Q3 08:52 FG NE (8:52) 3-S.Gostkowski 37 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-7-J.Bailey. NYJ 0 – NE 23
  • Q3 03:11 TD NE (3:11) 34-R.Burkhead left tackle for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NYJ 0 – NE 29
  • Q3 00:34 TD NYJ (:34) 4-L.Edwards punts 39 yards to NE 12, Center-42-T.Hennessy. 80-G.Olszewski MUFFS catch, touched at NE 8, RECOVERED by NYJ-23-A.Maulet at NE 0. TOUCHDOWN. NYJ 6 – NE 30
  • Q4 06:34 TD NYJ (6:34) (Shotgun) 4-J.Stidham pass short right intended for 38-B.Bolden INTERCEPTED by 33-J.Adams at NYJ 39. 33-J.Adams for 61 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NYJ 13 – NE 30

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 NYJ 4th & 6 at the 49
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 36% p(FG) 27%

    (12:33) 4-L.Edwards punts 37 yards to NE 12, Center-42-T.Hennessy, fair catch by 80-G.Olszewski.

  • Q1 NYJ 4th & 9 at the 74
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 33%

    (3:06) 4-L.Edwards punts 40 yards to NE 34, Center-42-T.Hennessy. 80-G.Olszewski to NE 41 for 7 yards (47-A.McClellan).

  • Q2 NYJ 4th & 13 at the 78
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 28%

    (11:41) 4-L.Edwards punts 54 yards to NE 24, Center-42-T.Hennessy. 80-G.Olszewski to NE 37 for 13 yards (84-R.Griffin).

  • Q2 NE 4th & 14 at the 68
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 32%

    (10:08) 7-J.Bailey punts 56 yards to NYJ 12, Center-49-J.Cardona, fair catch by 10-B.Berrios.

  • Q2 NYJ 4th & 2 at the 70
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.68 EP
    p(convert) 57%

    (7:20) 4-L.Edwards punts 47 yards to NE 23, Center-42-T.Hennessy. 80-G.Olszewski to NE 23 for no gain (15-J.Bellamy).

  • Q2 NE 4th & 6 at the 58
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 44%

    (4:28) 7-J.Bailey punts 58 yards to end zone, Center-49-J.Cardona, Touchback.

  • Q2 NYJ 4th & 5 at the 59
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 40%

    (2:28) 4-L.Edwards punts 44 yards to NE 15, Center-42-T.Hennessy. 80-G.Olszewski to NE 15 for no gain (47-A.McClellan, 87-D.Brown).

  • Q2 NE 4th & 1 at the 41
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.61 EP
    p(convert) 71% p(FG) 47%

    (:40) 7-J.Bailey punts 31 yards to NYJ 10, Center-49-J.Cardona, fair catch by 10-B.Berrios.

  • Q3 NE 4th & 8 at the 63
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 40%

    (13:16) 7-J.Bailey punts 55 yards to NYJ 8, Center-49-J.Cardona, fair catch by 10-B.Berrios.

  • Q3 NE 4th & 12 at the 19
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 29% p(FG) 91%

    (8:52) 3-S.Gostkowski 37 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-7-J.Bailey.

  • Q3 NYJ 4th & 19 at the 84
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 24%

    (7:57) 4-L.Edwards punts 51 yards to NE 33, Center-42-T.Hennessy. 80-G.Olszewski to NE 40 for 7 yards (50-F.Luvu).

  • Q4 NE 4th & 14 at the 50
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 30% p(FG) 25%

    (11:33) 7-J.Bailey punts 42 yards to NYJ 8, Center-49-J.Cardona, fair catch by 10-B.Berrios.

  • Q4 NE 4th & 2 at the 40 late-game
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.49 EP
    p(convert) 60% p(FG) 49%

    (4:56) 7-J.Bailey punts 39 yards to NYJ 1, Center-49-J.Cardona, downed by NE-31-J.Jones. 18-Slater batted ball back from going into end zone

  • Q4 NYJ 4th & 2 at the 91 late-game
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 60%

    (2:44) 4-L.Edwards punts 52 yards to NE 39, Center-42-T.Hennessy, downed by NYJ-44-H.Langi.

  • Q4 NE 4th & 5 at the 56 late-game
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 47%

    (1:45) 7-J.Bailey punts 29 yards to NYJ 27, Center-49-J.Cardona, out of bounds.

  • Q4 NYJ 4th & 13 at the 76 late-game
    Chose GO Model wanted PUNT instead — cost +0.32 EP
    p(convert) 28%

    (:56) (Shotgun) 8-L.Falk pass short left to 11-Ro.Anderson to NYJ 28 for 4 yards (24-S.Gilmore).