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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 New York Jets 4th & 19 at the 84

New York Jets 0 – New England Patriots 23

What Actually Happened

(7:57) 4-L.Edwards punts 51 yards to NE 33, Center-42-T.Hennessy. 80-G.Olszewski to NE 40 for 7 yards (50-F.Luvu).

The Three Options

GO -3.47 EP
  • 24% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.64 EP
  • 76% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 84, worth -5.05 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (101 yards).

PUNT -2.04 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • New England Patriots would take over around their own 42, worth -2.04 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model