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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New England Patriots 4th & 14 at the 50

New England Patriots 30 – New York Jets 7

What Actually Happened

(11:33) 7-J.Bailey punts 42 yards to NYJ 8, Center-49-J.Cardona, fair catch by 10-B.Berrios.

The Three Options

GO -0.88 EP
  • 30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 36, worth +3.41 EP
  • 70% chance to fail: New York Jets takes over around their own 50, worth -2.72 EP
KICK -1.63 EP
  • 25% chance to make a 67-yard field goal: 3 points, then New York Jets takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.72 EP
  • 75% chance to miss: New York Jets takes over around their own 49, worth -2.72 EP
PUNT -0.77 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • New York Jets would take over around their own 14, worth -0.77 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model