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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New England Patriots 4th & 2 at the 40

New England Patriots 30 – New York Jets 14

What Actually Happened

(4:56) 7-J.Bailey punts 39 yards to NYJ 1, Center-49-J.Cardona, downed by NE-31-J.Jones. 18-Slater batted ball back from going into end zone

The Three Options

GO +1.22 EP
Model's Pick
  • 60% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 38, worth +3.08 EP
  • 40% chance to fail: New York Jets takes over around their own 40, worth -1.61 EP
KICK -0.12 EP
  • 49% chance to make a 57-yard field goal: 3 points, then New York Jets takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.09 EP
  • 51% chance to miss: New York Jets takes over around their own 49, worth -2.27 EP
PUNT -0.27 EP
What Happened
  • New York Jets would take over around their own 11, worth -0.27 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.49 EP