Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New York Jets 4th & 2 at the 91

New York Jets 14 – New England Patriots 30

(2:44) 4-L.Edwards punts 52 yards to NE 39, Center-42-T.Hennessy, downed by NYJ-44-H.Langi.

The Three Options

GO -1.77 EP

60% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 89, worth +0.37 EP
40% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 91, worth -4.93 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (108 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model