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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New England Patriots 4th & 5 at the 56

New England Patriots 30 – New York Jets 14

What Actually Happened

(1:45) 7-J.Bailey punts 29 yards to NYJ 27, Center-49-J.Cardona, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -0.89 EP
Model's Pick
  • 47% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 51, worth +0.55 EP
  • 53% chance to fail: New York Jets takes over around their own 56, worth -2.18 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (73 yards).

PUNT -0.98 EP
What Happened
  • New York Jets would take over around their own 17, worth -0.98 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model