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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New York Jets 4th & 13 at the 76

New York Jets 14 – New England Patriots 30

What Actually Happened

(:56) (Shotgun) 8-L.Falk pass short left to 11-Ro.Anderson to NYJ 28 for 4 yards (24-S.Gilmore).

The Three Options

GO -0.69 EP
What Happened
  • 28% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 63, worth +0.86 EP
  • 72% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 76, worth -1.28 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (93 yards).

PUNT -0.37 EP
Model's Pick
  • New England Patriots would take over around their own 34, worth -0.37 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO Model wanted PUNT instead — cost +0.32 EP