Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 New York Jets 4th & 9 at the 74

New York Jets 0 – New England Patriots 13

(3:06) 4-L.Edwards punts 40 yards to NE 34, Center-42-T.Hennessy. 80-G.Olszewski to NE 41 for 7 yards (47-A.McClellan).

The Three Options

GO -2.60 EP

33% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.36 EP
67% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 74, worth -4.53 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (91 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model