Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Minnesota Vikings 4th & 9 at the 60

Minnesota Vikings 21 – Las Vegas Raiders 7

What Actually Happened

(5:22) 2-B.Colquitt punts 49 yards to LV 11, Center-58-A.Cutting. 30-J.Richard MUFFS catch, and recovers at LV 9. 30-J.Richard to LV 9 for no gain (31-A.Abdullah).

The Three Options

GO -1.05 EP

36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 51, worth +2.87 EP
64% chance to fail: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 60, worth -3.21 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (77 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model