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OAK Away

Oakland Raiders

HC Jon Gruden
@
MIN Home

Minnesota Vikings

HC Mike Zimmer
Sunday 2019-09-22 · 13:00 U.S. Bank Stadium, Minneapolis US 🏟 Dome Spread 8.5 O/U 43.0

Win Probability

OAK
38.0%
MIN
62.0%
🏟 Dome

Confidence: <strong>slight edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • MIN defense: -0.087 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (7th in the league)
  • LV offense: -0.048 EPA/play over its last 8 games (23rd in the league)
  • MIN offense: -0.060 EPA/play over its last 8 games (27th in the league)
  • Kirk Cousins (MIN): -0.059 EPA/dropback in prior starts
  • LV defense: +0.123 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (31st in the league)
  • Indoors — weather neutralised

Predicted Final Score

OAK 21
–
MIN 24
Projected margin: MIN by 3 Projected total: 45

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 3

OAK

Dwayne Harris WR Out Ankle
Gabe Jackson G Out Knee
Trenton Brown T Questionable Knee
Vontaze Burfict LB Questionable Shoulder
Denzelle Good G Questionable Ankle
P.J. Hall DT Questionable Illness
Lamarcus Joyner S Questionable Groin
Corey Liuget DT Questionable Knee

MIN

Mackensie Alexander CB Out Elbow
Pat Elflein G Questionable Knee
Mike Hughes CB Questionable Knee
Anthony Barr LB Questionable Groin
Ben Gedeon LB Questionable Groin

Pulled fresh for 2019 week 3 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

OAK 14
–
MIN 34

Prediction missed by 17 pts on margin, 3 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 11:31 TD MIN (11:31) 8-K.Cousins pass deep right to 19-A.Thielen for 35 yards, TOUCHDOWN [92-P.Hall]. OAK 0 – MIN 6
  • Q2 15:00 TD MIN (15:00) 33-D.Cook right end for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. OAK 0 – MIN 13
  • Q2 11:09 TD MIN (11:09) (No Huddle) 19-A.Thielen right end for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. OAK 0 – MIN 20
  • Q2 07:33 TD LV (7:33) 4-D.Carr pass deep left to 15-J.Nelson for 29 yards, TOUCHDOWN. OAK 6 – MIN 21
  • Q3 07:32 TD MIN (7:32) 25-A.Mattison up the middle for 10 yards, TOUCHDOWN. OAK 7 – MIN 27
  • Q4 15:00 FG MIN (15:00) 5-D.Bailey 50 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-58-A.Cutting, Holder-2-B.Colquitt. OAK 7 – MIN 31
  • Q4 03:49 FG MIN (3:49) 5-D.Bailey 24 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-58-A.Cutting, Holder-2-B.Colquitt. OAK 7 – MIN 34
  • Q4 01:26 TD LV (1:26) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 4-D.Carr pass short left to 16-T.Williams for 11 yards, TOUCHDOWN. OAK 13 – MIN 34

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 LV 4th & 8 at the 73
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 37%

    (10:00) 6-A.Cole punts 58 yards to MIN 15, Center-47-T.Sieg. 12-C.Beebe to MIN 23 for 8 yards (98-M.Crosby).

  • Q1 MIN 4th & 4 at the 71
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 50%

    (8:54) 2-B.Colquitt punts 44 yards to LV 27, Center-58-A.Cutting. 30-J.Richard to LV 37 for 10 yards (40-K.Brothers). PENALTY on LV-35-C.Riley, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at LV 27.

  • Q1 LV 4th & 6 at the 68
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 41%

    (5:32) 6-A.Cole punts 60 yards to MIN 8, Center-47-T.Sieg. 12-C.Beebe to MIN 21 for 13 yards (87-F.Moreau).

  • Q2 MIN 4th & 9 at the 60
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 36%

    (5:22) 2-B.Colquitt punts 49 yards to LV 11, Center-58-A.Cutting. 30-J.Richard MUFFS catch, and recovers at LV 9. 30-J.Richard to LV 9 for no gain (31-A.Abdullah).

  • Q2 LV 4th & 6 at the 48
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 38% p(FG) 37%

    (1:15) 6-A.Cole punts 40 yards to MIN 8, Center-47-T.Sieg, fair catch by 12-C.Beebe.

  • Q3 LV 4th & 10 at the 75
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 34%

    (13:04) 6-A.Cole punts 53 yards to MIN 22, Center-47-T.Sieg. 12-C.Beebe MUFFS catch, recovered by MIN-38-K.Boyd at MIN 16. 38-K.Boyd to MIN 16 for no gain (22-K.Nixon). PENALTY on MIN-38-K.Boyd, Illegal Block Above the Waist, 8 yards, enforced at MIN 16.

  • Q3 LV 4th & 1 at the 66
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 70%

    (5:20) 28-J.Jacobs left end pushed ob at MIN 48 for 18 yards (41-A.Harris).

  • Q3 LV 4th & 1 at the 39
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 67% p(FG) 60%

    (3:19) 75-B.Parker reported in as eligible. 28-J.Jacobs up the middle to MIN 39 for no gain (54-E.Kendricks; 99-D.Hunter).

  • Q4 MIN 4th & 4 at the 31
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 45% p(FG) 77%

    (15:00) 5-D.Bailey 50 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-58-A.Cutting, Holder-2-B.Colquitt.

  • Q4 LV 4th & 3 at the 44
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 49% p(FG) 47%

    (12:00) (Shotgun) 4-D.Carr pass short right to 83-D.Waller to MIN 38 for 6 yards (22-H.Smith).

  • Q4 LV 4th & 18 at the 33
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 21% p(FG) 73%

    (8:35) 8-D.Carlson 51 yard field goal is No Good, Hit Right Upright, Center-47-T.Sieg, Holder-6-A.Cole.

  • Q4 MIN 4th & 4 at the 6 late-game
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.45 EP
    p(convert) 42% p(FG) 98%

    (3:49) 5-D.Bailey 24 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-58-A.Cutting, Holder-2-B.Colquitt.