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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Las Vegas Raiders 4th & 10 at the 75

Las Vegas Raiders 7 – Minnesota Vikings 21

What Actually Happened

(13:04) 6-A.Cole punts 53 yards to MIN 22, Center-47-T.Sieg. 12-C.Beebe MUFFS catch, recovered by MIN-38-K.Boyd at MIN 16. 38-K.Boyd to MIN 16 for no gain (22-K.Nixon). PENALTY on MIN-38-K.Boyd, Illegal Block Above the Waist, 8 yards, enforced at MIN 16.

The Three Options

GO -2.35 EP
  • 34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.64 EP
  • 66% chance to fail: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 75, worth -4.37 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (92 yards).

PUNT -1.85 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Minnesota Vikings would take over around their own 32, worth -1.85 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model