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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Minnesota Vikings 4th & 4 at the 31

Minnesota Vikings 28 – Las Vegas Raiders 7

What Actually Happened

(15:00) 5-D.Bailey 50 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-58-A.Cutting, Holder-2-B.Colquitt.

The Three Options

GO +1.27 EP
Model's Pick
  • 45% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 27, worth +4.28 EP
  • 55% chance to fail: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 31, worth -1.21 EP
KICK +1.24 EP
What Happened
  • 77% chance to make a 48-yard field goal: 3 points, then Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.17 EP
  • 23% chance to miss: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 41, worth -1.90 EP
PUNT +0.11 EP
  • Las Vegas Raiders would take over around their own 11, worth +0.11 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model