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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Las Vegas Raiders 4th & 18 at the 33

Las Vegas Raiders 7 – Minnesota Vikings 31

What Actually Happened

(8:35) 8-D.Carlson 51 yard field goal is No Good, Hit Right Upright, Center-47-T.Sieg, Holder-6-A.Cole.

The Three Options

GO -0.15 EP
  • 21% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 15, worth +4.91 EP
  • 79% chance to fail: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 33, worth -1.53 EP
KICK +0.77 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 73% chance to make a 50-yard field goal: 3 points, then Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.77 EP
  • 27% chance to miss: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 43, worth -2.01 EP
PUNT -0.34 EP
  • Minnesota Vikings would take over around their own 11, worth -0.34 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model