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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Minnesota Vikings 4th & 4 at the 6

Minnesota Vikings 31 – Las Vegas Raiders 7

What Actually Happened

(3:49) 5-D.Bailey 24 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-58-A.Cutting, Holder-2-B.Colquitt.

The Three Options

GO +2.27 EP
Model's Pick
  • 42% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 2, worth +6.14 EP
  • 58% chance to fail: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 6, worth -0.51 EP
KICK +1.82 EP
What Happened
  • 98% chance to make a 23-yard field goal: 3 points, then Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.88 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 21, worth -0.88 EP
PUNT -0.59 EP
  • Las Vegas Raiders would take over around their own 11, worth -0.59 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.45 EP