Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Minnesota Vikings 4th & 4 at the 71

Minnesota Vikings 7 – Las Vegas Raiders 0

What Actually Happened

(8:54) 2-B.Colquitt punts 44 yards to LV 27, Center-58-A.Cutting. 30-J.Richard to LV 37 for 10 yards (40-K.Brothers). PENALTY on LV-35-C.Riley, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at LV 27.

The Three Options

GO -0.99 EP

50% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 67, worth +1.91 EP
50% chance to fail: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 71, worth -3.93 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (88 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model