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Cincinnati Bengals

0-4 HC Zac Taylor
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Pittsburgh Steelers

1-3 HC Mike Tomlin
Monday 2019-09-30 · 20:15 ET Heinz Field, Pittsburgh US 🌧 Rain Spread 3.5 O/U 45.5

Win Probability

CIN
43.1%
PIT
56.9%
🌧 Rain

Confidence: slight edge Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the full track record.

Key Insights

  • CIN offense: -0.080 EPA/play over its last 8 games (27th in the league)
  • Mason Rudolph (PIT): -0.170 EPA/dropback in prior starts
  • CIN defense: +0.021 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (18th in the league)

New to these stats? NFL 101 Glossary →

Predicted Final Score

CIN 21 14–28
–
PIT 22 15–29
Projected margin: PIT by 1 Projected total: 43

The range under each score is this model's typical error on unseen games — ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat the bigger number as the middle of that range, not a precise call — see the full track record.

Injury Report — Week 4

CIN

Ryan Glasgow DT Out Thigh
Cordy Glenn T Out Concussion
A.J. Green WR Out Ankle
Kerry Wynn DE Out Concussion
Carl Lawson DE Doubtful Hamstring

PIT

Anthony Chickillo LB Out Foot
Roosevelt Nix RB Out Knee
Vince Williams LB Out Hamstring
Vance McDonald TE Doubtful Shoulder
Jayrone Elliott LB Questionable Hamstring

Pulled fresh for 2019 week 4 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

CIN 3
–
PIT 27

Prediction missed by 23 pts on margin, 13 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 08:25 FG CIN (8:25) (Field Goal formation) 4-R.Bullock 28 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Harris, Holder-10-K.Huber. CIN 3 – PIT 0
  • Q2 10:39 TD PIT (10:39) (Shotgun) 2-M.Rudolph pass short right to 30-J.Conner for 21 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CIN 3 – PIT 6
  • Q2 01:01 FG PIT (1:01) (Field Goal formation) 9-C.Boswell 29 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-57-K.Canaday, Holder-4-J.Berry. CIN 3 – PIT 10
  • Q3 10:40 TD PIT (10:40) (Shotgun) 72-Z.Banner reported in as eligible. Direct snap to 38-J.Samuels. 38-J.Samuels right guard for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CIN 3 – PIT 16
  • Q3 09:32 TD PIT (9:32) (Shotgun) 2-M.Rudolph pass deep left to 18-D.Johnson for 43 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CIN 3 – PIT 23
  • Q4 05:56 FG PIT (5:56) (Field Goal formation) 9-C.Boswell 49 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-57-K.Canaday, Holder-4-J.Berry. CIN 3 – PIT 27

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 CIN 4th & 11 at the 46
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 30% p(FG) 41%

    (10:09) (Punt formation) 10-K.Huber punts 34 yards to PIT 12, Center-46-C.Harris, fair catch by 10-R.Switzer.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q1 CIN 4th & 5 at the 10
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.46 EP
    p(convert) 38% p(FG) 97%

    (8:25) (Field Goal formation) 4-R.Bullock 28 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Harris, Holder-10-K.Huber.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q1 PIT 4th & 1 at the 42
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 69% p(FG) 51%

    (4:06) 72-Z.Banner reported in as eligible. 30-J.Conner up the middle to CIN 42 for no gain (40-B.Wilson, 94-S.Hubbard).

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q1 CIN 4th & 11 at the 59
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 31%

    (3:20) (Punt formation) 10-K.Huber punts 59 yards to end zone, Center-46-C.Harris, Touchback.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q2 PIT 4th & 4 at the 47
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.58 EP
    p(convert) 47% p(FG) 39%

    (14:18) (Punt formation) 4-J.Berry punts 37 yards to CIN 10, Center-57-K.Canaday, fair catch by 12-A.Erickson.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q2 CIN 4th & 15 at the 95
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 31%

    (13:19) (Punt formation) 10-K.Huber punts 41 yards to CIN 46, Center-46-C.Harris, fair catch by 10-R.Switzer.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q2 PIT 4th & 7 at the 11
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 34% p(FG) 96%

    (1:01) (Field Goal formation) 9-C.Boswell 29 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-57-K.Canaday, Holder-4-J.Berry.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q3 PIT 4th & 3 at the 62
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 54%

    (3:52) (Punt formation) 4-J.Berry punts 62 yards to end zone, Center-57-K.Canaday, Touchback.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q4 CIN 4th & 13 at the 13
    Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.62 EP
    p(convert) 24% p(FG) 96%

    (11:08) (Shotgun) 14-A.Dalton pass deep right intended for 87-C.Uzomah INTERCEPTED by 26-M.Barron at PIT -7. Touchback (87-C.Uzomah).

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q4 PIT 4th & 8 at the 31
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 34% p(FG) 77%

    (5:56) (Field Goal formation) 9-C.Boswell 49 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-57-K.Canaday, Holder-4-J.Berry.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q4 CIN 4th & 1 at the 66 late-game
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 71%

    (4:29) (Shotgun) 25-G.Bernard up the middle to CIN 37 for 3 yards (48-B.Dupree).

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q4 CIN 4th & 10 at the 48 late-game
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 31% p(FG) 36%

    (1:56) (Shotgun) 14-A.Dalton sacked at CIN 44 for -8 yards (94-T.Alualu).

    See the full breakdown →