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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Pittsburgh Steelers 4th & 3 at the 62

Pittsburgh Steelers 24 – Cincinnati Bengals 3

What Actually Happened

(3:52) (Punt formation) 4-J.Berry punts 62 yards to end zone, Center-57-K.Canaday, Touchback.

The Three Options

GO -0.40 EP
Model's Pick
  • 54% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 59, worth +2.16 EP
  • 46% chance to fail: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 62, worth -3.38 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (79 yards).

PUNT -0.61 EP
What Happened
  • Cincinnati Bengals would take over around their own 21, worth -0.61 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model