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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Baltimore Ravens 4th & 7 at the 50

Baltimore Ravens 0 – Cleveland Browns 7

What Actually Happened

(8:26) (Punt formation) 4-S.Koch punts 41 yards to CLE 9, Center-46-M.Cox, fair catch by 80-J.Landry.

The Three Options

GO -0.30 EP
Model's Pick
  • 40% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 43, worth +3.19 EP
  • 60% chance to fail: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 50, worth -2.57 EP
KICK -1.42 EP
  • 26% chance to make a 67-yard field goal: 3 points, then Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.86 EP
  • 74% chance to miss: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 49, worth -2.57 EP
PUNT -0.58 EP
What Happened
  • Cleveland Browns would take over around their own 14, worth -0.58 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model