4th & Data
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Cleveland Browns

HC Freddie Kitchens
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Baltimore Ravens

HC John Harbaugh
Sunday 2019-09-29 · 13:00 M&T Bank Stadium, Baltimore US ☀️ Clear Spread 7.5 O/U 47.0

Win Probability

CLE
34.0%
BAL
66.0%
☀️ Clear

Confidence: <strong>clear edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • BAL offense: +0.095 EPA/play over its last 8 games (4th in the league)
  • CLE offense: -0.046 EPA/play over its last 8 games (24th in the league)
  • BAL defense: -0.059 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (8th in the league)

Predicted Final Score

CLE 20
–
BAL 26
Projected margin: BAL by 6 Projected total: 46

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 4

CLE

Kendall Lamm T Out Knee
Morgan Burnett S Questionable Quadricep
Rashard Higgins WR Questionable Knee
Sheldrick Redwine S Questionable Hamstring
Denzel Ward CB Questionable Hamstring
Greedy Williams CB Questionable Hamstring
Christopher Hubbard T Questionable Foot

BAL

Otaro Alaka LB Out Hamstring
Jimmy Smith CB Out Knee
Brynden Trawick S Out Elbow
Mark Andrews TE Questionable Foot
Marlon Humphrey CB Questionable Hamstring

Pulled fresh for 2019 week 4 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

CLE 40
–
BAL 25

Prediction missed by 21 pts on margin, 19 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 02:57 TD CLE (2:57) (Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield pass short left to 83-R.Seals-Jones for 9 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CLE 6 – BAL 0
  • Q2 02:00 TD BAL (2:00) (Shotgun) 8-L.Jackson pass short middle to 80-M.Boykin for 9 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CLE 7 – BAL 6
  • Q2 00:11 FG CLE (:11) 4-A.Seibert 24 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-C.Hughlett, Holder-7-J.Gillan. CLE 10 – BAL 7
  • Q3 11:19 FG BAL (11:19) 9-J.Tucker 41 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-M.Cox, Holder-4-S.Koch. CLE 10 – BAL 10
  • Q3 09:49 TD CLE (9:49) 24-N.Chubb right guard for 14 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CLE 16 – BAL 10
  • Q3 00:58 TD CLE (:58) 67-J.McCray reported in as eligible. 24-N.Chubb left tackle for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CLE 23 – BAL 10
  • Q4 09:55 TD BAL (9:55) (Shotgun) 8-L.Jackson pass short middle to 89-M.Andrews for 8 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CLE 24 – BAL 16
  • Q4 09:47 TD CLE (9:47) 24-N.Chubb right tackle for 88 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CLE 30 – BAL 18
  • Q4 07:01 FG CLE (7:01) 4-A.Seibert 43 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-C.Hughlett, Holder-7-J.Gillan. CLE 33 – BAL 18
  • Q4 02:17 TD CLE (2:17) 67-J.McCray reported in as eligible. 25-D.Hilliard left guard for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. CLE 39 – BAL 18
  • Q4 00:40 TD BAL (:40) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 8-L.Jackson pass short left to 83-W.Snead for 50 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CLE 40 – BAL 24

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 CLE 4th & 11 at the 76
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 33%

    (13:39) (Punt formation) 7-J.Gillan punts 41 yards to BAL 35, Center-47-C.Hughlett, out of bounds.

  • Q1 BAL 4th & 8 at the 63
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 39%

    (11:34) (Punt formation) 4-S.Koch punts 47 yards to CLE 16, Center-46-M.Cox, fair catch by 80-J.Landry.

  • Q2 BAL 4th & 14 at the 53
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 29% p(FG) 20%

    (15:00) (Punt formation) 4-S.Koch punts 43 yards to CLE 10, Center-46-M.Cox, fair catch by 80-J.Landry.

  • Q2 CLE 4th & 5 at the 68
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 44%

    (11:40) (Punt formation) 7-J.Gillan punts 46 yards to BAL 22, Center-47-C.Hughlett. 27-C.Jones pushed ob at BAL 36 for 14 yards (88-D.Harris).

  • Q2 BAL 4th & 7 at the 50
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 40% p(FG) 26%

    (8:26) (Punt formation) 4-S.Koch punts 41 yards to CLE 9, Center-46-M.Cox, fair catch by 80-J.Landry.

  • Q2 CLE 4th & 1 at the 8
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 63% p(FG) 97%

    (:30) 6-B.Mayfield up the middle to BAL 07 for 1 yard (97-M.Pierce).

  • Q2 CLE 4th & 6 at the 6
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 34% p(FG) 98%

    (:11) 4-A.Seibert 24 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-C.Hughlett, Holder-7-J.Gillan.

  • Q3 BAL 4th & 8 at the 23
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 34% p(FG) 87%

    (11:19) 9-J.Tucker 41 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-M.Cox, Holder-4-S.Koch.

  • Q4 BAL 4th & 3 at the 69
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 56%

    (8:19) (Shotgun) 8-L.Jackson pass incomplete short left to 89-M.Andrews.

  • Q4 CLE 4th & 4 at the 25
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 42% p(FG) 84%

    (7:01) 4-A.Seibert 43 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-C.Hughlett, Holder-7-J.Gillan.

  • Q4 CLE 4th & 10 at the 80
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 35%

    (5:36) (Punt formation) 7-J.Gillan punts 40 yards to BAL 40, Center-47-C.Hughlett, fair catch by 27-C.Jones.

  • Q4 BAL 4th & 5 at the 74 late-game
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 48%

    (1:09) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 8-L.Jackson pass short middle to 81-H.Hurst to CLE 45 for 29 yards (35-J.Whitehead).