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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Cleveland Browns 4th & 1 at the 8

Cleveland Browns 7 – Baltimore Ravens 7

What Actually Happened

(:30) 6-B.Mayfield up the middle to BAL 07 for 1 yard (97-M.Pierce).

The Three Options

GO +3.34 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 63% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 7, worth +5.27 EP
  • 37% chance to fail: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 8, worth -0.00 EP
KICK +2.42 EP
  • 97% chance to make a 25-yard field goal: 3 points, then Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.51 EP
  • 3% chance to miss: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 21, worth -0.39 EP
PUNT -0.11 EP
  • Baltimore Ravens would take over around their own 11, worth -0.11 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model