4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Cleveland Browns 4th & 6 at the 6

Cleveland Browns 7 – Baltimore Ravens 7

What Actually Happened

(:11) 4-A.Seibert 24 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-C.Hughlett, Holder-7-J.Gillan.

The Three Options

GO +2.37 EP
  • 34% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +6.90 EP
  • 66% chance to fail: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 6, worth +0.08 EP
KICK +2.89 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 98% chance to make a 23-yard field goal: 3 points, then Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.96 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 21, worth -0.03 EP
PUNT -0.01 EP
  • Baltimore Ravens would take over around their own 11, worth -0.01 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model