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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Cleveland Browns 4th & 10 at the 80

Cleveland Browns 33 – Baltimore Ravens 18

What Actually Happened

(5:36) (Punt formation) 7-J.Gillan punts 40 yards to BAL 40, Center-47-C.Hughlett, fair catch by 27-C.Jones.

The Three Options

GO -2.55 EP
  • 35% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 70, worth +0.88 EP
  • 65% chance to fail: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 80, worth -4.36 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (97 yards).

PUNT -1.88 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Baltimore Ravens would take over around their own 37, worth -1.88 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model