4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Baltimore Ravens 4th & 5 at the 74

Baltimore Ravens 18 – Cleveland Browns 40

What Actually Happened

(1:09) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 8-L.Jackson pass short middle to 81-H.Hurst to CLE 45 for 29 yards (35-J.Whitehead).

The Three Options

GO -0.28 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 48% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 69, worth +0.84 EP
  • 52% chance to fail: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 74, worth -1.33 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (91 yards).

PUNT -0.34 EP
  • Cleveland Browns would take over around their own 32, worth -0.34 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model