4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Baltimore Ravens 4th & 14 at the 53

Baltimore Ravens 0 – Cleveland Browns 7

What Actually Happened

(15:00) (Punt formation) 4-S.Koch punts 43 yards to CLE 10, Center-46-M.Cox, fair catch by 80-J.Landry.

The Three Options

GO -0.90 EP
  • 29% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 39, worth +3.52 EP
  • 71% chance to fail: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 53, worth -2.73 EP
KICK -1.56 EP
  • 20% chance to make a 70-yard field goal: 3 points, then Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.29 EP
  • 80% chance to miss: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 49, worth -2.54 EP
PUNT -0.36 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Cleveland Browns would take over around their own 15, worth -0.36 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model