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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New Orleans Saints 4th & 16 at the 24

New Orleans Saints 3 – Dallas Cowboys 3

What Actually Happened

(8:46) 3-W.Lutz 42 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-Z.Wood, Holder-6-T.Morstead.

The Three Options

GO +0.55 EP
  • 24% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 8, worth +5.47 EP
  • 76% chance to fail: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 24, worth -1.03 EP
KICK +1.43 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 87% chance to make a 41-yard field goal: 3 points, then Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.86 EP
  • 13% chance to miss: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 34, worth -1.54 EP
PUNT -0.25 EP
  • Dallas Cowboys would take over around their own 11, worth -0.25 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model