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DAL Away

Dallas Cowboys

HC Jason Garrett
@
NO Home

New Orleans Saints

HC Sean Payton
Sunday 2019-09-29 · 20:20 Mercedes-Benz Superdome, New Orleans US 🏟 Dome Spread -2.5 O/U 47.0

Win Probability

DAL
61.6%
NO
38.4%
🏟 Dome

Confidence: <strong>slight edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • DAL offense: +0.150 EPA/play over its last 8 games (2nd in the league)
  • NO defense: +0.083 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (27th in the league)
  • Dak Prescott (DAL): +0.212 EPA/dropback in prior starts
  • NO offense: +0.043 EPA/play over its last 8 games (9th in the league)
  • Indoors — weather neutralised

Predicted Final Score

DAL 26
–
NO 22
Projected margin: DAL by 4 Projected total: 48

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 4

DAL

Tyrone Crawford DE Out Hip
Michael Gallup WR Out Knee
Antwaun Woods DT Out Knee
Luke Gifford LB Questionable Ankle

NO

Drew Brees QB Out right Thumb
Will Clapp C Out Hand
Tre'Quan Smith WR Out Ankle
Sheldon Rankins DT Questionable Achilles

Pulled fresh for 2019 week 4 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

DAL 10
–
NO 12

Prediction missed by 6 pts on margin, 26 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 05:13 FG DAL (5:13) 2-B.Maher 28 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-91-L.Ladouceur, Holder-6-C.Jones. DAL 3 – NO 0
  • Q2 15:00 FG NO (15:00) 3-W.Lutz 40 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-Z.Wood, Holder-6-T.Morstead. DAL 3 – NO 3
  • Q2 08:46 FG NO (8:46) 3-W.Lutz 42 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-Z.Wood, Holder-6-T.Morstead. DAL 3 – NO 6
  • Q2 00:02 FG NO (:02) 3-W.Lutz 19 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-Z.Wood, Holder-6-T.Morstead. DAL 3 – NO 9
  • Q3 07:52 TD DAL (7:52) 21-E.Elliott left guard for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. DAL 9 – NO 9
  • Q4 13:45 FG NO (13:45) 3-W.Lutz 26 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-Z.Wood, Holder-6-T.Morstead. DAL 10 – NO 12

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 DAL 4th & 6 at the 49
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 44% p(FG) 35%

    (12:03) 6-C.Jones punts 35 yards to NO 14, Center-91-L.Ladouceur, fair catch by 11-D.Harris.

  • Q1 DAL 4th & 9 at the 10
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.33 EP
    p(convert) 33% p(FG) 97%

    (5:13) 2-B.Maher 28 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-91-L.Ladouceur, Holder-6-C.Jones.

  • Q2 NO 4th & 18 at the 22
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 23% p(FG) 90%

    (15:00) 3-W.Lutz 40 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-Z.Wood, Holder-6-T.Morstead.

  • Q2 DAL 4th & 5 at the 70
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 50%

    (13:38) 6-C.Jones punts 44 yards to NO 26, Center-91-L.Ladouceur. 11-D.Harris to NO 49 for 23 yards (53-J.March-Lillard).

  • Q2 NO 4th & 16 at the 24
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 24% p(FG) 87%

    (8:46) 3-W.Lutz 42 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-Z.Wood, Holder-6-T.Morstead.

  • Q2 NO 4th & 9 at the 52
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 36% p(FG) 28%

    (4:49) 6-T.Morstead punts 44 yards to DAL 8, Center-49-Z.Wood. 18-R.Cobb to DAL 22 for 14 yards (48-J.Gray). INJURY UPDATE: Dallas #35 K.Frazier, pectoral, OUT.

  • Q2 DAL 4th & 1 at the 57
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 73%

    (1:36) (Run formation) 21-E.Elliott right guard to DAL 45 for 2 yards (24-V.Bell). FUMBLES (24-V.Bell), RECOVERED by NO-24-V.Bell at DAL 44. 24-V.Bell to DAL 44 for no gain (21-E.Elliott). The Replay Official reviewed the fumble ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands.

  • Q3 NO 4th & 1 at the 66
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.21 EP
    p(convert) 72%

    (13:43) 6-T.Morstead punts 50 yards to DAL 16, Center-49-Z.Wood, downed by NO-52-C.Robertson. INJURY UPDATE: New Orleans #91 T.Hendrickson, neck, OUT.

  • Q4 NO 4th & 2 at the 8
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.07 EP
    p(convert) 55% p(FG) 97%

    (13:45) 3-W.Lutz 26 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-Z.Wood, Holder-6-T.Morstead.

  • Q4 DAL 4th & 2 at the 58
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.22 EP
    p(convert) 63%

    (11:34) 6-C.Jones punts 58 yards to end zone, Center-91-L.Ladouceur, Touchback.

  • Q4 NO 4th & 16 at the 67
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 29%

    (6:58) 6-T.Morstead punts 47 yards to DAL 20, Center-49-Z.Wood. 10-T.Austin ran ob at DAL 20 for no gain (34-J.Hardee). PENALTY on DAL-38-J.Heath, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at DAL 20.

  • Q4 DAL 4th & 2 at the 82
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.54 EP
    p(convert) 66%

    (5:29) 6-C.Jones punts 44 yards to NO 38, Center-91-L.Ladouceur, fair catch by 11-D.Harris.