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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New Orleans Saints 4th & 9 at the 52

New Orleans Saints 6 – Dallas Cowboys 3

What Actually Happened

(4:49) 6-T.Morstead punts 44 yards to DAL 8, Center-49-Z.Wood. 18-R.Cobb to DAL 22 for 14 yards (48-J.Gray). INJURY UPDATE: Dallas #35 K.Frazier, pectoral, OUT.

The Three Options

GO -0.47 EP
  • 36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 43, worth +3.39 EP
  • 64% chance to fail: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 52, worth -2.60 EP
KICK -1.21 EP
  • 28% chance to make a 69-yard field goal: 3 points, then Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.25 EP
  • 72% chance to miss: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 49, worth -2.56 EP
PUNT -0.17 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Dallas Cowboys would take over around their own 15, worth -0.17 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model