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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Dallas Cowboys 4th & 6 at the 49

Dallas Cowboys 0 – New Orleans Saints 0

What Actually Happened

(12:03) 6-C.Jones punts 35 yards to NO 14, Center-91-L.Ladouceur, fair catch by 11-D.Harris.

The Three Options

GO -0.55 EP
Model's Pick
  • 44% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 43, worth +2.88 EP
  • 56% chance to fail: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 49, worth -3.23 EP
KICK -1.63 EP
  • 35% chance to make a 66-yard field goal: 3 points, then New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.41 EP
  • 65% chance to miss: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 49, worth -3.24 EP
PUNT -0.78 EP
What Happened
  • New Orleans Saints would take over around their own 14, worth -0.78 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model