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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 New Orleans Saints 4th & 1 at the 66

New Orleans Saints 9 – Dallas Cowboys 3

What Actually Happened

(13:43) 6-T.Morstead punts 50 yards to DAL 16, Center-49-Z.Wood, downed by NO-52-C.Robertson. INJURY UPDATE: New Orleans #91 T.Hendrickson, neck, OUT.

The Three Options

GO +0.38 EP
Model's Pick
  • 72% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.95 EP
  • 28% chance to fail: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 66, worth -3.73 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (83 yards).

PUNT -0.83 EP
What Happened
  • Dallas Cowboys would take over around their own 24, worth -0.83 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.21 EP