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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Dallas Cowboys 4th & 9 at the 10

Dallas Cowboys 0 – New Orleans Saints 0

What Actually Happened

(5:13) 2-B.Maher 28 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-91-L.Ladouceur, Holder-6-C.Jones.

The Three Options

GO +1.91 EP
Model's Pick
  • 33% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 1, worth +6.38 EP
  • 67% chance to fail: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 10, worth -0.27 EP
KICK +1.57 EP
What Happened
  • 97% chance to make a 27-yard field goal: 3 points, then New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.66 EP
  • 3% chance to miss: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 21, worth -1.00 EP
PUNT -0.36 EP
  • New Orleans Saints would take over around their own 11, worth -0.36 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.33 EP