4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New Orleans Saints 4th & 18 at the 22

New Orleans Saints 0 – Dallas Cowboys 3

What Actually Happened

(15:00) 3-W.Lutz 40 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-Z.Wood, Holder-6-T.Morstead.

The Three Options

GO +0.93 EP
  • 23% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 4, worth +5.99 EP
  • 77% chance to fail: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 22, worth -0.55 EP
KICK +1.92 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 90% chance to make a 39-yard field goal: 3 points, then Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.29 EP
  • 10% chance to miss: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 32, worth -1.23 EP
PUNT +0.20 EP
  • Dallas Cowboys would take over around their own 11, worth +0.20 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model