Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Detroit Lions 4th & 17 at the 69

Detroit Lions 10 – Kansas City Chiefs 3

What Actually Happened

(11:29) 6-S.Martin punts 37 yards to KC 32, Center-48-D.Muhlbach. 84-D.Thomas to KC 32 for no gain (44-J.Reeves-Maybin). FUMBLES (44-J.Reeves-Maybin), recovered by KC-56-B.Niemann at KC 26. 56-B.Niemann to KC 26 for no gain (44-J.Reeves-Maybin).

The Three Options

GO -1.86 EP

27% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 52, worth +2.83 EP
73% chance to fail: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 69, worth -3.61 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (86 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model