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Kansas City Chiefs

HC Andy Reid
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Detroit Lions

HC Matt Patricia
Sunday 2019-09-29 · 13:00 Ford Field, Detroit US 🏟 Dome Spread -7.5 O/U 54.5

Win Probability

KC
63.5%
DET
36.5%
🏟 Dome

Confidence: <strong>clear edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • KC offense: +0.245 EPA/play over its last 8 games (1st in the league)
  • QB edge to KC: Matthew Stafford (DET) -0.020 vs Patrick Mahomes (KC) +0.317 EPA/dropback
  • DET defense: -0.092 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (5th in the league)
  • Indoors — weather neutralised

Predicted Final Score

KC 26
–
DET 22
Projected margin: KC by 4 Projected total: 48

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 4

KC

Eric Fisher T Out Groin
Tyreek Hill WR Out Shoulder
Damien Williams RB Out Knee

DET

Mike Daniels DT Out Foot
Danny Amendola WR Questionable Chest
Da'Shawn Hand DE Questionable Elbow
Darius Slay CB Questionable Hamstring
Matthew Stafford QB Questionable Hip

Pulled fresh for 2019 week 4 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

KC 34
–
DET 30

Prediction missed by 0 pts on margin, 16 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 10:09 FG DET (10:09) 5-M.Prater 25 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-D.Muhlbach, Holder-6-S.Martin. KC 0 – DET 3
  • Q1 03:10 TD DET (3:10) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass short right to 88-T.Hockenson for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN. KC 0 – DET 9
  • Q2 14:16 FG KC (14:16) 7-H.Butker 23 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-2-D.Colquitt. KC 3 – DET 10
  • Q2 04:18 TD KC (4:18) (Shotgun) 25-L.McCoy up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. KC 9 – DET 10
  • Q2 01:08 FG DET (1:08) 5-M.Prater 48 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-D.Muhlbach, Holder-6-S.Martin. KC 10 – DET 13
  • Q2 00:06 FG KC (:06) 7-H.Butker 44 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-2-D.Colquitt. KC 13 – DET 13
  • Q3 09:31 TD KC (9:31) 33-K.Johnson up the middle to KC 1 for no gain (98-X.Williams). FUMBLES (98-X.Williams), RECOVERED by KC-21-B.Breeland at KC 0. 21-B.Breeland for 100 yards, TOUCHDOWN. The Replay Official reviewed the fumble ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands. KC 19 – DET 13
  • Q3 06:24 FG DET (6:24) 5-M.Prater 53 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-D.Muhlbach, Holder-6-S.Martin. KC 20 – DET 16
  • Q3 01:14 TD DET (1:14) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass short middle to 19-K.Golladay for 9 yards, TOUCHDOWN. KC 20 – DET 22
  • Q4 12:12 TD KC (12:12) (Shotgun) 31-D.Williams up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. KC 26 – DET 23
  • Q4 02:31 TD DET (2:31) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass short left to 19-K.Golladay for 6 yards, TOUCHDOWN. The Replay Official reviewed the pass completion ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands. KC 27 – DET 29
  • Q4 00:23 TD KC (:23) (Shotgun) 31-D.Williams up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. The Replay Official reviewed the runner broke the plane ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands. KC 33 – DET 30

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 DET 4th & 7 at the 7
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 33% p(FG) 98%

    (10:09) 5-M.Prater 25 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-D.Muhlbach, Holder-6-S.Martin.

  • Q1 KC 4th & 10 at the 18
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 32% p(FG) 93%

    (5:43) 7-H.Butker 36 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-2-D.Colquitt.

  • Q2 KC 4th & 5 at the 5
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.62 EP
    p(convert) 41% p(FG) 98%

    (14:16) 7-H.Butker 23 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-2-D.Colquitt.

  • Q2 DET 4th & 17 at the 69
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 27%

    (11:29) 6-S.Martin punts 37 yards to KC 32, Center-48-D.Muhlbach. 84-D.Thomas to KC 32 for no gain (44-J.Reeves-Maybin). FUMBLES (44-J.Reeves-Maybin), recovered by KC-56-B.Niemann at KC 26. 56-B.Niemann to KC 26 for no gain (44-J.Reeves-Maybin).

  • Q2 KC 4th & 4 at the 68
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.47 EP
    p(convert) 53%

    (10:25) 2-D.Colquitt punts 51 yards to DET 17, Center-41-J.Winchester. 39-J.Agnew to DET 16 for -1 yards (49-D.Sorensen).

  • Q2 DET 4th & 10 at the 79
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 36%

    (8:18) 6-S.Martin punts 49 yards to KC 30, Center-48-D.Muhlbach, out of bounds.

  • Q2 DET 4th & 5 at the 29
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 41% p(FG) 81%

    (1:08) 5-M.Prater 48 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-D.Muhlbach, Holder-6-S.Martin.

  • Q3 DET 4th & 6 at the 35
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 39% p(FG) 69%

    (6:24) 5-M.Prater 53 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-D.Muhlbach, Holder-6-S.Martin.

  • Q4 KC 4th & 13 at the 61
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 33%

    (6:54) 2-D.Colquitt punts 40 yards to DET 21, Center-41-J.Winchester, downed by KC-49-D.Sorensen.

  • Q4 KC 4th & 8 at the 66 late-game
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 41%

    (1:55) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes scrambles up the middle to KC 49 for 15 yards (25-W.Harris).