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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Los Angeles Chargers 4th & 6 at the 37

Los Angeles Chargers 10 – Miami Dolphins 10

What Actually Happened

(6:10) (Shotgun) 17-P.Rivers pass incomplete short middle to 15-D.Inman [96-T.Charlton]. PENALTY on LAC-78-T.Scott, Face Mask (15 Yards), 15 yards, enforced between downs.

The Three Options

GO +0.36 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 40% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 31, worth +3.73 EP
  • 60% chance to fail: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 37, worth -1.92 EP
KICK -0.27 EP
  • 54% chance to make a 54-yard field goal: 3 points, then Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.77 EP
  • 46% chance to miss: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 46, worth -2.65 EP
PUNT -0.31 EP
  • Miami Dolphins would take over around their own 11, worth -0.31 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model