Win Probability
Confidence: <strong>strong edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.
Key Insights
- MIA offense: -0.279 EPA/play over its last 8 games (32nd in the league)
- QB edge to LAC: Josh Rosen (MIA) -0.388 vs Philip Rivers (LAC) +0.140 EPA/dropback
- MIA defense: +0.176 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (32nd in the league)
- LAC defense: +0.056 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (24th in the league)
Predicted Final Score
Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.
Injury Report — Week 4
LAC
MIA
Pulled fresh for 2019 week 4 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.
Actual Result
Prediction missed by 10 pts on margin, 0 pts on total.
Scoring Summary
- Q1 10:17 FG LAC (10:17) (Field Goal formation) 1-T.Long 44 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-45-C.Mazza, Holder-5-T.Taylor. LAC 3 – MIA 0
- Q1 06:39 TD MIA (6:39) (Shotgun) 3-J.Rosen pass deep right to 11-D.Parker for 34 yards, TOUCHDOWN. LAC 3 – MIA 6
- Q1 02:53 TD LAC (2:53) (Shotgun) 17-P.Rivers pass short left to 35-T.Pope for 13 yards, TOUCHDOWN. LAC 9 – MIA 7
- Q2 11:15 FG MIA (11:15) 7-J.Sanders 30 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-T.Pepper, Holder-2-M.Haack. LAC 10 – MIA 10
- Q2 00:50 TD LAC (:50) (Shotgun) 17-P.Rivers pass short left to 30-A.Ekeler for 18 yards, TOUCHDOWN. LAC 16 – MIA 10
- Q3 01:27 FG LAC (1:27) (Field Goal formation) 1-T.Long 45 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-45-C.Mazza, Holder-5-T.Taylor. LAC 20 – MIA 10
- Q4 11:24 TD LAC (11:24) (Shotgun) 30-A.Ekeler up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. LAC 26 – MIA 10
- Q4 07:32 FG LAC (7:32) (Field Goal formation) 1-T.Long 51 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-45-C.Mazza, Holder-5-T.Taylor. LAC 30 – MIA 10
Fourth-Down Decisions
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Q1 LAC 4th & 9 at the 26Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 33% p(FG) 80%
(10:17) (Field Goal formation) 1-T.Long 44 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-45-C.Mazza, Holder-5-T.Taylor.
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Q2 MIA 4th & 12 at the 12Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 22% p(FG) 95%
(11:15) 7-J.Sanders 30 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-T.Pepper, Holder-2-M.Haack.
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Q2 LAC 4th & 6 at the 37Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 40% p(FG) 54%
(6:10) (Shotgun) 17-P.Rivers pass incomplete short middle to 15-D.Inman [96-T.Charlton]. PENALTY on LAC-78-T.Scott, Face Mask (15 Yards), 15 yards, enforced between downs.
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Q2 MIA 4th & 8 at the 32Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 30% p(FG) 67%
(3:39) (Field Goal formation) 7-J.Sanders 50 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-46-T.Pepper, Holder-2-M.Haack.
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Q3 MIA 4th & 6 at the 64Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 38%
(12:07) (Punt formation) 2-M.Haack punts 57 yards to LAC 7, Center-46-T.Pepper, downed by MIA-35-W.Aikens.
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Q3 LAC 4th & 19 at the 27Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 23% p(FG) 78%
(1:27) (Field Goal formation) 1-T.Long 45 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-45-C.Mazza, Holder-5-T.Taylor.
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Q4 MIA 4th & 17 at the 99Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 27%
(15:00) (Punt formation) 2-M.Haack punts 46 yards to MIA 47, Center-46-T.Pepper. 20-D.King to MIA 38 for 9 yards (81-D.Smythe). PENALTY on LAC-35-T.Pope, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at MIA 46.
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Q4 LAC 4th & 8 at the 33Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 35% p(FG) 65%
(7:32) (Field Goal formation) 1-T.Long 51 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-45-C.Mazza, Holder-5-T.Taylor.
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Q4 MIA 4th & 12 at the 54 late-gameChose GO Model wanted PUNT instead — cost +0.33 EPp(convert) 27%
(4:00) (Shotgun) 3-J.Rosen pass short left to 84-I.Ford to MIA 48 for 2 yards (27-J.Watkins).