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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Miami Dolphins 4th & 8 at the 32

Miami Dolphins 10 – Los Angeles Chargers 10

What Actually Happened

(3:39) (Field Goal formation) 7-J.Sanders 50 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-46-T.Pepper, Holder-2-M.Haack.

The Three Options

GO +0.31 EP
  • 30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 24, worth +4.31 EP
  • 70% chance to fail: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 32, worth -1.38 EP
KICK +0.71 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 67% chance to make a 49-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.97 EP
  • 33% chance to miss: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 42, worth -1.90 EP
PUNT -0.36 EP
  • Los Angeles Chargers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.36 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model